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Importance of Demand and Capacity Modelling

The mismatch between demand (the number of patients needing care) and capacity (the resources available to provide care) is one of the main reasons why waiting lists grow and waiting times increase. – NHS England.
Understanding and managing NHS demand and capacity is crucial, helping to ensure that services are planned and delivered effectively, safely and to a high standard, as well as improving:
- Patient care through ensuring they receive quality care without excessive waiting times.
- Staff well-being – less pressure and enhanced morale – greater productivity
- Service efficiency – improved flow across the service through the system creating improved patient and staff experience
- System-level planning – provides complex interactions between organisations and processes at a strategic level
Pathway-wide D&C modeling
A key component to providing robust demand and capacity modelling is having the ability to model throughout the planned care pathway.
“The huge backlogs within Outpatients are a particular risk that needs to be addressed. As part of the Four Eyes Insight D&C Modelling programmes, we can get very granular – considering pathway level and consultant level details. This allows us to determine the root cause of backlogs and help NHS Trusts implement changes to reduce these waits.” Samantha Sullivan, Director, Four Eyes Insight,
Going beyond specialties, into sub-specialties, procedures and pathways is pivotal to understanding where the backlogs sit.
The Four Eyes Insight Data and Analytics team adds gravitas and robustness to existing NHS data that can be used to identify areas for improvement. Our bespoke service benchmarks Trust data and looks at the impact new initiatives will have on the organisation going forward.
Identifying the true gap between demand and capacity
Recently, Four Eyes Insight worked in collaboration with The Princess Alexandra Hospital NHS Trust to develop a thorough demand and capacity model across the ophthalmology pathway, which delivered a robust understanding of the true gap between capacity and demand at a sub-specialty level across the full patient pathway, establishing that:
- Backlogs for theatres could be controlled in line with the national target of 85% (0.65 additional patients on the average list) and introducing 3 high-volume cataract lists per week into business-as-usual processes.
- Improvements could be made in outpatients by increasing virtual capacity and improving productivity to 95% (booked). However, it was clear that further changes would be required to meet follow-up demand fully.
If your organisation needs support in addressing planned care backlogs, contact us and we’ll be happy to have a chat.