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Smarter Planning, Better Outcomes: The Impact of Demand and Capacity Modelling

The Impact of Demand and Capacity Modelling on Patient Care

I’m really passionate about the benefits of good quality Demand and Capacity modelling. It isn’t just about filling in spreadsheets—it’s about answering the real-world “what ifs” that leaders face every day. A basic model is a useful start, but the real value comes when you use it to test specific scenarios and co-design solutions with clinical and operational teams.

Samantha Sullivan, Delivery Director, Four Eyes Insight

In the dynamic world of healthcare, ensuring that patients receive timely and effective care is paramount. Across the country, NHS leaders face the same dilemma: how can we improve waiting times, while also protecting our staff from burnout? Demand and capacity modelling gives us the clarity to tackle those challenges head-on.

In this blog, we will explore how effective demand and capacity modelling can significantly improve patient care and satisfaction, focusing on reduced waiting times, improved appointment scheduling, and enhanced patient experience.

Understanding Demand and Capacity Modelling

On a basic level, demand and capacity modelling involves analysing various data points to predict future patient demand and allocate healthcare resources accordingly.

But It’s not just about crunching numbers — it’s about asking the right questions:

The questions you ask have got to be bespoke to you and specific to your problems.

▪️If we increase new outpatient activity, what will be the knock-on effect on follow-up demand?
▪️If consultants transfer appropriate work to nursing teams, how much capacity could that release?
▪️If suitable theatre cases move to a surgical hub, how many more complex cases could the acute site handle, and what extra resources would be needed?

From Data to Decisions

Demand and capacity modelling isn’t about perfection. It’s about clarity. When done well, it brings together operational knowledge, clinical insight, and data to help you design services around patient need.

According to Neil Mason, Senior BI Analyst at Four Eyes Insight, the key challenge is finding the baseline position, identifying demand at a suitably granular level and with sufficient confidence that the data is good enough to paint an accurate picture of reality.

“A busy provider facility may be configured in one way on paper, but in an entirely different way on the ground. Close collaboration is necessary between the analytical team and the clinical teams and managers to ensure that a clear picture is built up of what services are delivered, and where. The final challenge is understanding how demand is likely to change in the future, which is reliant on local knowledge and historical data to enable accurate forecasting.”

Why it matters – Enhanced Patient Experience

“Good capacity planning makes services more reliable, responsive, and resilient. It’s about looking ahead; not just reacting to pressure on the day.” Samantha Sullivan, Director, Four Eyes Insight.

We all know the benefits of better planning – less delays, less surprises and a smoother service, but how does this translate into the real world?

Ultimately, the goal of demand and capacity modelling is to enhance the overall patient experience. When NHS Trusts can predict and manage demand effectively, patients benefit in several ways:

1.Timely Access to Care: Reduced waiting times and improved appointment scheduling mean that patients receive care when they need it, without unnecessary delays. This is particularly important for patients with urgent or chronic conditions.

Example: Reduced Waiting Times – Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS FT

Cardiology services faced demand-capacity imbalances in ECHO and Cath Labs. Through analytics, pathway reviews, and staff engagement, we identified practical improvements without adding major resources.

Impact:

✅ ECHO: Backlog clearance in 22 months with small changes (extra patient per clinic, weekend sessions)
✅ Cath Labs: Better scheduling and utilisation (80%) could clear Angio backlog in 14 months
✅ 27 actionable recommendations to improve access and efficiency

2.Personalised Care: With resources aligned, clinicians can spend more time with patients and tailor care to their needs.

Example: Walsall Healthcare NHS Trust

Modelling revealed high DNA rates and underused clinics. Patient surveys and focus groups identified barriers to attendance. In response, the Trust introduced simpler, multi-language reminders via phone and mobile, a new travel expense reclaim process, and improved procedures to fill short-notice vacancies.

Impact:

✅ 2% increase in utilisation
✅ 2% reduction in DNA rates
✅ 14% reduction in patient complaints

3.Reduced Stress and Anxiety: Long waits and uncertainty can cause stress and anxiety for patients. By ensuring a smooth and efficient process, demand and capacity modelling helps create a more positive and reassuring environment for patients.

Example: Better Utilisation of Estate – Hillingdon Hospitals NHS FT

FEI worked with Hillingdon to build a robust business case for improving the utilisation of physical theatre estate. By modelling activity, bed needs, staffing, and finances, we identified opportunities to recover lost theatre capacity.

Impact:

✅ 614 additional sessions identified per year
✅ Capacity for 1,681 more patients
✅ 80% of dropped sessions recovered
✅ Ability to clear 52+ week waits in 11 weeks
✅ £1.2–£1.8m anticipated net income

Informed Decision-Making: Clear forecasts help providers communicate care journeys more effectively, building trust with patients.

Example: The launch of the New Heatherwood Side – Frimley Health NHS FT

Frimley Health aimed to make Heatherwood Hospital a dedicated elective orthopaedic centre. This required shifting other activity into the remaining sites — but with more clinicians moving out than in, there was a real risk that existing estate and capacity wouldn’t stretch far enough.

FEI developed a demand and capacity model to assess the impact of displacing services, comparing specialty demand with available capacity across the three sites. Working closely with clinical and operational teams, we tested scenarios to identify the changes needed to make the plan viable.

Impact:

✅ Demonstrated how activity could be redistributed safely across sites
✅ Informed decisions on increasing worked weeks (up to 49) and list duration (10 hours on all sites)
✅ Identified productivity gains (up to 50% of opportunities)
✅ Enabled the successful creation of Heatherwood as a high-volume orthopaedic hub, while protecting other specialties’ capacity

Conclusion

Demand and capacity modelling is a powerful tool for optimising services and improving patient care. By reducing waiting times, improving appointment scheduling, and enhancing the overall patient experience, NHS Trusts can deliver high-quality care efficiently. As national targets continue to evolve, the integration of advanced analytics will be key to achieving operational excellence and improving patient outcomes.

“If you’re unsure about investing in C+D modelling, my advice would be to think of it not as a data exercise—but as a decision-making tool. It helps turn uncertainty into strategy, and makes tough choices clearer, faster, and more grounded in evidence.” Samantha Sullivan, Delivery Director, Four Eyes Insight.